High Yield - Europe Spotlight

European HY bond market returns declined in YTD 2022, owing to heightened geopolitical tensions and rising interest rate risks. Issuers largely stayed on the sidelines in 2022 due to higher refinancing costs. Despite recession fears, the 10-year–2-year European spread steepened in 2022, in contrast to the US curve inversion. That said, the Eurozone recession is likely to stem from energy supply concerns owing to the Russia-Ukraine crisis and not from ECB tightening its monetary policy. Notably, S&P expects the European high yield corporate default rate to rise to 3.0% by March 2023 from 0.7% as of March 2022.